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What CPI inflation print means for recession, plunging stock market

อัพเดทวันที่ 10 พฤศจิกายน 2023 เข้าดู ครั้ง

For example, soaring education costs may adversely impact younger individuals, while the impact of increasing elderly care costs is felt by a different group of individuals. The monthly CPI release from the BLS leads with the change from the prior month for the overall CPI-U as well as its key subcategories, along with the unadjusted change year-over-year. The BLS detailed tables show price changes for a variety of goods and services organized by eight umbrella spending categories. CPI-W is used to adjust Social Security payments as well as other federal benefits and pensions for changes in the cost of living.

  1. And then, other indexes for apparel, household furnishings, operations, communication, recreation actually decreased over the month.
  2. Most economists are confident that the government measure of rents will converge with the private measures eventually, but they aren’t sure about the timing.
  3. “Inflation slows to 3.1%, signaling continued moderation of consumer price increases.” 11 Dec 2023.
  4. As the traditional CPI-U calculation only measures inflation for urban populations, it remains a less-than-reliable source of data for individuals living in rural areas.
  5. The CPI-U represents more than 90% of U.S. consumers, making it the most broadly applicable.
  6. Energy Information Administration data published in late December.

Stock markets generally aren’t driven as much by CPI numbers, but sometimes they can be! Higher inflation and consequently higher interest rates can force economic activity to slow. Therefore, as a rule, stock markets favor a lower CPI that lets consumers keep spending, and businesses continue investing even more. Michael Swanson, the chief agricultural economist at Wells Fargo, said he anticipated grocery price growth to cool substantially over the next few months. He said he also expected menu prices at restaurants to ease, but those prices have not cooled as much because business owners have struggled to deal with higher labor costs. Wage growth has moderated in recent months, but it is still elevated compared to prepandemic levels.

With two decades of business and finance journalism experience, Ben has covered breaking market news, written on equity markets for Investopedia, and edited personal finance content for Bankrate and LendingTree. This was less than the November core CPI reading, which was 4.0% before seasonal adjustment. This is well off the 40-year high from September 2022, which came in at 6.6% for the 12 months ending in September 2022. Critics claim that adjustments for changes in product quality and features understate the CPI.

What Is the Latest CPI Inflation Reading?

Indeed, economic indicators such as CPI tend to cause huge swings in the charts. Therefore, traders should follow economic releases and monitor the price movement during these events. Let’s see, we got XLB, that is the number one performer that’s up about 6/10 of a percent in the premarket. Yahoo Finance’s Seana Smith and Brad Smith report on the breaking economic data. When it comes to international routes, analysts are less certain of why fares are falling and whether they will remain low.

Crude Oil

“Inflation slows to 3.1%, signaling continued moderation of consumer price increases.” 11 Dec 2023. Still, over the last 12 months, the U.S. imported about 6.39 million barrels of crude oil per day on average. That’s up more than 8.7% from average daily imports in 2020 — but lower than the pre-pandemic average of 6.80 million barrels per day in 2019. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook for January, the EIA projected that crude oil production averaged 12.92 million barrels per day in 2023, which would be the highest average on record. EIA also said it expects crude oil production — fueled by increases in well efficiency — to increase to 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and 13.4 million in 2025, which would be new records. The number of people without health insurance decreased by 0.7 percentage points or 2.4 million people from 2020, the year before Biden took office, to 2022.

The company has “seen some shifts to discount channels and switching to private label brands,” he said. An earlier version of this article incorrectly described a gain in the S&P 500. At 2 percent, the index was on track for one of https://traderoom.info/ its biggest days in 2023, not its biggest. The S&P 500 rose 1.9 percent on Tuesday, while the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies’ stocks, which are more exposed to the ups and downs of the economy, climbed roughly 5 percent.

Bureau of Labor Statistics

The international trade deficit in that period was $136.5 billion higher, or about 20.9% more, than the gap for the 2020 calendar year. In the most recent 12 months on record (ending in September), there were approximately 4.82 billion metric tons of emissions from the consumption of coal, natural gas and various petroleum products, according to the EIA. That’s down from the 4.83 billion metric tons as of our last update, but it’s still about 5.2% more than the roughly 4.58 billion metric tons emitted in 2020. In June 2022, the consumer sentiment index dropped to a record-low 50, according to survey data since November 1952.

Price change for each subcategory is provided with and without seasonal adjustment. For the last few days, her fury has been directed less at Gandhi and more at his MP from Bengal, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury. Or, at least, she cleverly used the wash of crimson around Gandhi as the perfect excuse to declare, for the second time in recent days this election season, that she is going solo.

How the CPI Works

Information about food and energy price increases are both summarized in the beginning of the report, since these two categories directly impact consumers. Core inflation, which refers to inflation minus food and energy prices, comes next. This key economic metric is based on prices that consumers pay for goods and services difference between information and data throughout the U.S. economy. The percentage change in CPI over a period of time is referred to as the inflation rate. In response to higher-than-desired inflation rates via the CPI, the Fed adjusts the Fed funds rate. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers.

On the other hand, criticism concerning the quality adjustments used in the CPI has been widely discounted by economists. This notion is also widely attributable to individuals with varying degrees of income. For example, lower-income individuals who contribute more gross income towards necessities of shelter and food will skew differently than households with larger disposable income. For this reason, the CPI may not adequately reflect each individual’s experience about costs and changes over time.

What is a basket of goods?

David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University, said that many consumers were more focused on the price level of food, which overall remains significantly higher than a few years ago. Prices for fruits and vegetables increased 0.3 percent in November, faster than the month before, when prices were unchanged. A gauge of the cost of meat, poultry and fish declined 0.4 percent after rising 0.7 percent the month before. Chicken prices fell 0.4 percent, and pork prices declined 1 percent.

But demand for international travel could face challenges, partly because of the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. Analysts also warn that many consumers may be less willing or able to splurge on travel than they were in the last couple of years, when they had pandemic savings to draw from. Even if demand remains strong, airlines risk offering too many seats on popular overseas routes. Thanksgiving this year is expected to set a record for air travel, with nearly 30 million passengers forecast, according to Airlines for America, an industry group.

The CPI-W covers 29% of the U.S. population living in households with income derived predominantly from clerical employment or jobs with an hourly wage. The calculation of the CPI indexes from the data factors in substitution effects—consumers’ tendency to shift spending away from products and categories has grown relatively more expensive. It also adjusts price data for changes in product quality and features. The weighting of the product and service categories in the CPI indexes corresponds to recent consumer spending patterns derived from a separate survey. Stocks are nudging higher ahead of the release of the consumer inflation report, adding to gains from Monday and supported by a dip lower in Treasury yields. Futures on the S&P 500, which allow investors to bet on the market before trading officially opens, rose 0.2 percent immediately ahead of the data release.

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